The Lab Blog
Betting guides, stats explainers and Fantasy Premier League tips, written in plain English.
How to Pick Your FPL Captain Every Week
Your captain scores double points, so it is the biggest single decision you make each gameweek. Here is a simple, repeatable way to choose one using fixtures, form, venue, penalties and a sensible view of differentials.
The Dixon Coles Model: How Football Predictions Work
A beginner friendly look at the Dixon Coles model: how Poisson goals, attack and defence ratings, home advantage and a low scoring adjustment combine to turn team strength into scoreline chances.
Bet of the Week: Combination Slip
This week's mixed market slip pairs a Sevilla goals leg with three corners bets in La Liga and Serie A, for a combined model chance of 19.8% and fair odds of 5.06, with honest notes on where the evidence is thin.
Bet of the Week: Teams to Win
The Lab's three favourites for 26 October to 2 November: Barcelona, Inter and Atalanta, with a combined model chance of 39.0% and fair odds of 2.56, plus the form behind each pick and where the evidence is weaker.
FPL Picks of the Week
Our Gameweek 9 FPL picks: Palmer for captain, three players to bring in, a low owned differential and one popular player to avoid, all based on the Lab's latest projections.
What Are Decimal Odds? Fractional vs Decimal Explained
Learn how decimal and fractional odds work, how to convert between them, and what they say about implied probability. Plus, see why bookmaker margin matters when comparing prices.
FPL Wildcard: When Should You Play It?
A good FPL wildcard fixes lasting problems, not just one bad gameweek. Learn how to judge fixture swings, injuries and price changes before rebuilding your squad.
How Is xG Calculated? A Plain English Guide
Expected goals measures how likely a shot is to become a goal. Learn how models calculate xG, why chance quality matters more than shot totals, and where the numbers fall short.
Each Way Accumulators Explained
An each way accumulator combines a win accumulator with a place accumulator. Learn how both parts work, how place terms change your returns, and when this type of bet may make sense.
How do accumulator bets work? A plain English guide
What an accumulator is, how the odds multiply, why bookmakers love them, and how to think about your real chance of winning.
Fantasy Premier League tips for beginners
New to FPL? How scoring works, how to pick your first squad, and the mistakes every new manager makes.
What is xG in football? Expected goals explained
Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of chances a team creates. Here is what it means, how it is calculated, and how to use it.