Each week the Lab's model looks across the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 and picks the teams it rates most likely to win. This week covers fixtures from 26 October to 2 November, and the model has settled on three favourites: one in Spain and two in Italy.
The slip
- Saturday 31 October: Barcelona v Alaves (La Liga). Barcelona to win. Model 77%, fair odds 1.30.
- Wednesday 28 October: Venezia v Inter (Serie A). Inter to win. Model 72%, fair odds 1.39.
- Monday 2 November: Atalanta v Parma (Serie A). Atalanta to win. Model 70%, fair odds 1.42.
A quick note on the form figures below. Some of the recent match records the Lab collected this week mixed in games from other sides with the same name, such as women's and reserve teams. To keep things honest, the notes here use league results only.
Barcelona to beat Alaves
Barcelona have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 40 and conceding 11. Their only league defeat came last weekend, a 2-1 home loss to Real Madrid, but before that they won 5-2 at Betis and 3-0 at home to Getafe. Alaves have a mixed record of 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, and their last three league games were a 1-1 draw with Malaga and defeats at Celta and at home to Ath Madrid.
One thing to keep in mind: Barcelona host Aston Villa in the Champions League three days after this game. That could tempt the coach to rest a few players, although nothing is confirmed.
Inter to win at Venezia
Inter are unbeaten in the league, with 7 wins and 1 draw from 8 games, 23 goals scored and 10 conceded. Their latest league outing was a 2-1 home win over Fiorentina on 25 October. Venezia have had a very hard start, with 1 win and 7 defeats, 6 goals scored and 17 conceded. Their one win was a 1-0 home victory over Napoli, so they can cause an upset on their day.
The concern here is workload. This game comes only a few days after the Fiorentina match, and Inter's fixture list shows a Milan derby three days later, followed by a Champions League game against Feyenoord. Rotation is possible, though not confirmed.
Atalanta to beat Parma
This is the leg to be most careful with. Atalanta's own league form is ordinary: 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, with 14 scored and 15 conceded. Their last league game was a 4-4 home draw with Frosinone, before which they lost 3-2 at Milan. They also lost 2-0 at Ajax in the Conference League on 22 October.
The model's 70% leans heavily on Parma's poor season. Parma have 1 win, 1 draw and 6 defeats, with just 5 goals scored and 15 conceded, and they have lost their last three league games to Lazio, Torino and Inter. Both sides have busy weeks: Atalanta travel to Fiorentina on 29 October, Parma host Udinese on 28 October, and Atalanta then face Kairat Almaty in the Conference League three days after this match.
Combined chance and price
Put together, the model gives this treble a combined chance of 39.0%, with combined fair odds of 2.56. That assumes the three results are independent of each other.
Fair odds are the price that matches the model's chance with no bookmaker margin. In plain terms, a 39% chance means the treble is more likely to lose than win. If a bookmaker offers a price below 2.56, the model sees no value in it. The form notes above do not change the model's numbers; they are there to help you judge whether you trust them.
Our verdict
Barcelona and Inter look like solid favourites on their league form, with possible rotation as the main worry. Atalanta are the weak link, because their own results do not match a 70% favourite and the case rests mostly on Parma's struggles. That leg is the one to think hardest about before you decide whether this slip is for you.
Bet responsibly
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