The combination slip mixes different types of bet rather than sticking to match results. This week, for fixtures from 26 October to 2 November, the Lab's model has picked one team goals leg and three corners legs from La Liga and Serie A.
The slip
- Monday 26 October: Sevilla v Osasuna (La Liga). Sevilla over 0.5 goals. Model 80%, fair odds 1.25.
- Wednesday 28 October: Monza v Napoli (Serie A). Monza over 2.5 corners. Model 66%, fair odds 1.53.
- Thursday 29 October: Fiorentina v Atalanta (Serie A). Under 9.5 match corners. Model 60%, fair odds 1.65.
- Saturday 31 October: Levante v Ath Madrid (La Liga). Over 8.5 match corners. Model 62%, fair odds 1.60.
The form notes below use league games only, and they come from a limited sample of recent matches rather than complete season records. Note that the Sevilla game kicks off tonight.
Sevilla to score against Osasuna
This leg only needs Sevilla to score once. They have 14 league goals in 9 games this season, and their last two league games were a 3-3 draw at Levante and a 4-1 defeat at Real Madrid, where they still found the net. Osasuna have conceded 18 in 9 league games, including five at Betis and four at Ath Madrid. Both clubs have a Copa del Rey tie three days later, which could mean some changes, but that is not confirmed.
Monza to win three or more corners against Napoli
In the seven Monza league games we have corner counts for, they won three or more corners in six. The one miss was at home, just two corners in a 4-0 win over Cagliari, and their other two home games produced seven and three. Napoli are a stronger side and could keep Monza penned back, so this is not a given. Napoli's away games have varied a lot: they conceded no corners at Venezia but ten at Inter.
Under 9.5 corners in Fiorentina v Atalanta
The evidence here is mixed. In Fiorentina's eight league games, six finished with nine corners or fewer. Their home games are less clear: two stayed under (Napoli and Torino) and two went well over (16 against Como and 13 against Frosinone). Atalanta's seven league games we have data for split four under and three over, and their away trips produced 4, 9 and 15 corners. Atalanta also play Parma four days later and have a Conference League game after that.
Over 8.5 corners in Levante v Ath Madrid
This is the leg we have the least confidence in. Ath Madrid's games have reached nine or more corners in three of the seven league matches we have counts for, but all three were away from home: 16 at Espanol, 10 at Alaves and 12 at Sociedad. Levante's four league games in our sample only cleared the line once, with 12 corners at home to Ath Bilbao. The sample is small and points both ways. Ath Madrid also face Bayern Munich in the Champions League three days later, which may affect their line-up.
Combined chance and price
Put together, the model gives this four leg slip a combined chance of 19.8%, with combined fair odds of 5.06. That assumes the legs are independent of each other.
In plain terms, the model expects this slip to lose about four times in every five. Fair odds are the price that matches the model's chance with no bookmaker margin, so a price below 5.06 means the model sees no value. Corners markets can also be settled differently from one bookmaker to another, so check the rules before you place anything. The form notes above do not change the model's numbers.
Our verdict
The Sevilla leg has the strongest support from the form we can see. The Monza leg is reasonable, while both match corners legs rest on small, mixed samples. Please treat this as a fun, higher risk bet rather than a strong recommendation.
Bet responsibly
No bet is guaranteed, and no model can promise profit. Betting is for over 18s only. Only stake what you can afford to lose, and if gambling stops being fun, visit BeGambleAware.org for free, confidential support.