This week's teams to win slip covers fixtures from 2 to 9 November and has three legs, all on Saturday 7 November. The Lab's model chose them as the strongest supported chances across the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1.
The slip
- Paris SG v Troyes (Ligue 1). Paris SG to win. Model 84%, fair odds 1.19.
- Arsenal v Hull City (Premier League). Arsenal to win. Model 82%, fair odds 1.22.
- Dortmund v Elversberg (Bundesliga). Dortmund to win. Model 73%, fair odds 1.37.
The form below comes from the Lab's data up to 1 November. It gives context only and does not change the model's probabilities. Home and away figures use small samples of four or five recent games, some of them in cup competitions.
Paris SG to beat Troyes
Paris SG have won their last five, scoring 18 and conceding 6, including 4-2 wins over Barcelona and at Man City. In the league they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from 9 games. Troyes have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 9, with 7 goals scored and 16 conceded, though they did beat Le Mans 2-0 last time out.
The concern: Paris SG play at Villarreal on 3 November, about four days before this game. We cannot say whether they will rotate, so check the team news. Conceding 10 in 9 league games also shows they are not watertight.
Arsenal to beat Hull City
Arsenal have 8 wins and 1 defeat from 9 league games, scoring 14 and conceding 5. They most recently won 1-0 at Liverpool. Over their last five home games they have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. Hull have 2 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats from 9, and have drawn three of their last five.
The concerns: this is the leg with the most to check. Arsenal go to Slavia Prague on 4 November, leaving under three days of rest. Saliba and Saka are listed as out with unknown return dates, and Dowman is suspended until 29 November. Hull's draws also matter here, because a draw loses this bet. Their last five away games have averaged 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, so they have not been easy to beat by much.
Dortmund to beat Elversberg
Dortmund are unbeaten in the league with 5 wins and 3 draws from 8, scoring 14 and conceding 6. Their last five home games have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Elversberg have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats from 8, with 16 scored and 16 conceded, and over four away games they have averaged 1 scored and 2 conceded.
The concerns: this is the weakest of the three, and the model agrees at 73%. Dortmund have scored only 5 in their last five games, with draws at Bayern Munich and Union Berlin and a defeat at Bodoe/Glimt. They host Betis on 4 November, leaving under three days of rest. Elversberg can also score, having just beaten Mainz 4-1, though they also lost 0-4 at RB Leipzig.
The combined numbers
Combined chance 50.2%, combined fair odds 1.99. Multiplying the rounded figures by hand may give a very slightly different result.
That is close to a coin flip, even with three strong favourites, so about half the time at least one leg should let this slip down. The figure also assumes the legs are independent.
Fair odds are the model's estimate of the price matching its chance, not a bookmaker's price. If the price you can get is lower than 1.99, the model would say the bet is poor value on these numbers. The model can also be wrong, and our team news does not cover every club, so check the line-ups before kick-off.
Our overall view
The form backs the favourites, but all three have a game in the days before, and this is short priced with little margin for a surprise result. Paris SG have the cleanest case. Arsenal's absences and Dortmund's recent lack of goals are the things we would want to look at again closer to kick-off.
Bet responsibly
This is a model's view, not a promise of any result. You must be 18 or over to bet. Only stake what you can afford to lose. For free support, visit BeGambleAware.org.