The combination slip mixes different types of bet rather than sticking to match results. This week, for fixtures from 2 to 9 November, the Lab's model has picked two corners legs, one both teams to score leg and two cards legs.
The slip
- Saturday 7 November: Osasuna v Ath Bilbao (La Liga). Under 9.5 match corners. Model 60%, fair odds 1.66.
- Sunday 8 November: Napoli v Lazio (Serie A). Under 9.5 match corners. Model 60%, fair odds 1.66.
- Sunday 8 November: Brighton v Brentford (Premier League). BTTS yes. Model 60%, fair odds 1.66.
- Sunday 8 November: Genoa v Milan (Serie A). Over 0.5 match cards. Model 98%, fair odds 1.02.
- Sunday 8 November: Fiorentina v Juventus (Serie A). Over 0.5 match cards. Model 98%, fair odds 1.02.
The form below uses data up to 1 November and does not change the model's probabilities. Home and away averages come from only four or five recent games, and can include cup matches.
Osasuna v Ath Bilbao: under 9.5 corners
The recent numbers point in two directions. Osasuna's last five home games have averaged 4.8 corners for and 3.8 against, a total of 8.6, which fits the bet. Bilbao's last five away games averaged 6.8 for and 4.4 against, a total of 11.2, which does not, although that sample includes a cup tie.
So we would call the evidence mixed. Osasuna also play at Deportivo A Coruna on 2 November, about five days before this game.
Napoli v Lazio: under 9.5 corners
This one is close to the line. Napoli's last five home games total 9.2 corners on average, and Lazio's last five away games total 9.6. Both sit just above or just below where the bet needs them to be, so the form gives only limited support.
Lazio are the league's in-form side in our data, with 9 wins and 1 draw from 10 games, while Napoli have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats. Napoli also visit FC Porto on 4 November, and any change in how this game is played could easily move the corner count.
Brighton v Brentford: both teams to score
Brighton should be the easy half of this bet. Their last five home games have averaged 3.4 goals scored. The difficulty is the other half, because they conceded just 0.2 per game across those same matches.
Brentford do score, averaging 1.8 per game in their last five away games, and have 16 league goals in 9 matches. But this recent evidence does not obviously support 60%, so treat this as the leg to question most. Brighton play at Getafe on 5 November, which leaves under three days of rest and may matter, though rotation is not confirmed. Mitoma, Ferguson, Henry and Carvalho are among the players listed as out across the two squads.
Genoa v Milan: over 0.5 cards
This leg needs just one card in the match. The form notes we hold do not include card counts for these teams, so we cannot add any evidence beyond the model's 98%.
It is worth knowing that a leg priced at 1.02 adds very little to the slip's price while still giving it one more way to lose. Milan host Ferencvaros on 5 November, about three days before this game.
Fiorentina v Juventus: over 0.5 cards
The same point applies here, with no card data in our notes and very little added to the price. Fiorentina play Sassuolo on 2 November, and Juventus visit AZ Alkmaar on 5 November, about three days before this game.
The combined numbers
Combined chance 21.1%, combined fair odds 4.74. This assumes the legs are independent. The figures shown are rounded, so multiplying them by hand may give a slightly different result.
A chance of 21.1% means the model expects this slip to lose roughly four times out of five. Fair odds are the model's estimate, not a bookmaker's price, and some bookmakers may not offer every leg in this form. If the price you can get is below 4.74, the model would say the bet is poor value on these numbers.
Our overall view
The cards legs look the safest on the model's numbers, but they cannot be checked against our notes. Of the three 60% legs, the recent numbers only partly support the two corners bets, and they sit awkwardly with both teams to score at Brighton. This is a modest evidence base, so we would not lean on it heavily.
Bet responsibly
This is a model's view, not a promise of any result. You must be 18 or over to bet. Only stake what you can afford to lose. For free support, visit BeGambleAware.org.